topic Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires in Industry News

Misinformation and the Australian fires

rslade — Thu, 09 Jan 2020 19:03:23 GMT

A number of major news sources have reported that 183 arsonists have been arrested in connection with the bushfires currently sweeping Australia.

The thing is, that number isn't true. It's based on reports from News Corp, relying on a total figure from last year, not this. Initially, this report was widely circulated by far right websites and personalities (including Donald Trump Jr.) since it undermines any assertion that global climate change is part of the issue.

This year 24 people have been arrested for setting fires, but the vast bulk of the larger and more dangerous fires have been sparked by lighting.

The fact that the 183 figure has been so widely disseminated in supposedly legitimate media is rather disturbing ...

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

CraginS — Thu, 09 Jan 2020 21:43:57 GMT

@rslade wrote:
...
The fact that the 183 figure has been so widely disseminated in supposedly legitimate media is rather disturbing ...

I think we should designate the process of preparing to replay such information as chack fecking, or maybe check facking.

Craig

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

CISOScott — Thu, 09 Jan 2020 21:48:24 GMT

We are in the Information age. Anybody can use any information they want to make their point, whether it is true or not.

The one thing I got from my 4 years of college to get my B.S. Degree came from my statistics class. It taught me that you can make whatever you want to say appear legitimate just by asking the right questions.

For example; If I ask this question "Do you think President (insert your country's leader here) is doing Great job or just an OK job?" No matter what option people choose I can claim that 100% of people surveyed support this president and think he/she is doing an adequate job. Then I can further expand on my point by claiming X number of percentage think he/she is doing a great job!

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

CraginS — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 14:48:10 GMT

@CISOScott wrote:
We are in the Information age. Anybody can use any information they want to make their point, whether it is true or not.

The one thing I got from my 4 years of college to get my B.S. Degree came from my statistics class. It taught me that you can make whatever you want to say appear legitimate just by asking the right questions.

For example; If I ask this question "Do you think President (insert your country's leader here) is doing Great job or just an OK job?" No matter what option people choose I can claim that 100% of people surveyed support this president and think he/she is doing an adequate job. Then I can further expand on my point by claiming X number of percentage think he/she is doing a great job!

(Also see my Randomness Blog entry)

Every professional dealing with data should read the classic book

How to Lie With Statistics by Darrel Huff, 1954

Goodreads Reviews

Lessons on How to Lie with Statistics (July 2019 blog post)

Wikipedia entry

Internet Archive Free Download

Order from Amazon

Summary notes

Craig

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

rslade — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 18:22:08 GMT

> CISOScott (Community Champion) posted a new reply in Industry News on 01-09-2020

> We are in the Information age. Anybody can use any information they want to make
> their point, whether it is true or not.

Not one single person that I asked agreed with your post.

(Is the fact that I didn't ask anyone relevant?)

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

CISOScott — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 20:05:02 GMT

I see what you did there...

If the voices in my head all agree with me does that mean we have a quorum?

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

denbesten — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 20:31:51 GMT

@CISOScott wrote:
... my B.S. Degree ... taught me that you can make whatever you want to say appear legitimate...

... chuckle.... Seems like a natural outcome from a degree in that field. ... (immature) chuckle....

But yea, your point is spot on. And for people that answer "no", theirs is disregarded as non-responsive.

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

CraginS — Fri, 10 Jan 2020 21:15:18 GMT

@CISOScott wrote:
I see what you did there...
If the voices in my head all agree with me does that mean we have a quorum?

No, only unanimity.

To confirm a quorum, all of your headvoices must be present.

\(*,*)/

Craig

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

JohnG — Sat, 11 Jan 2020 16:31:58 GMT

Thanks guys for enlightenment!

I try to do the old three out of five trick to really get a handle on the truth...

I usually can find up to five worldwide reputable resources that try very hard to tell it like it is.

If all five are skewed I am screwed!

Yes it does take time to filter out the garbage but I really would like to know that I am getting some semblance of reality from this type of mission critical information.

Not just a curmudgeon but an older one with lots of miles on the treads.

Enjoying this community. Thanks... JohnG

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

rslade — Sat, 11 Jan 2020 18:05:24 GMT

> CraginS (Advocate II) posted a new reply in Industry News on 01-10-2020 04:15 PM

> To confirm a
> quorum, all of your headvoices must be present.

According to RobertS's Rules of Imaginary Order, only two thirds of the voices
need to be present, and sometimes as few as five ...

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Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

rslade — Sat, 11 Jan 2020 19:01:17 GMT

> CISOScott (Community Champion) posted a new reply in Industry News on 01-10-2020

> If the voices in my head all agree with me does that
> mean we have a quorum?

It's OK to talk to yourself.

It's even OK to argue with yourself.

If you argue with yourself and lose, then you might have a problem ...

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

MikeGlassman — Sun, 12 Jan 2020 05:00:57 GMT

@rslade wrote:

It's OK to talk to yourself.

It's even OK to argue with yourself.

If you argue with yourself and lose, then you might have a problem ...

Are you claiming that if I have more than one personality, that I have a problem ?

Perhaps I am simply a person who is never alone even when locked in a room with rubber walls...

Regarding the fires in Australia and misinformation, how about the fire maps that were disseminated and which show fires in areas that had no fires.

All in all, I am sad about the hundreds of thousands of animal lives that were lost due to this.

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

TonyVizza — Mon, 13 Jan 2020 05:09:53 GMT

There is truth to your post, rslade, and significant debate has raged about some of these inaccurate figures circulated about arson being the cause of bushfires.

A good article which helps to clarify the truth can be located here by the national public broadcaster in Australia, the ABC: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-11/australias-fires-reveal-arson-not-a-major-cause/11855022

Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

rslade — Mon, 13 Jan 2020 19:30:24 GMT

> MikeGlassman (Contributor I) edited a reply in Industry News on 01-12-2020 12:00

> Regarding the fires in Australia and
> misinformation, how about the fire maps that were disseminated and which show
> fires in areas that had no fires. All in all, I am sad about the hundreds of
> thousands of animal lives that were lost due to this.

False positives. Contributing to waste of resources, and possibly directing
resources away from areas that need them.

Apparently they also have false negatives, showing no fires in some areas that
were burnt out. A number of people have been denied emergency and recovery
funds due to this.

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Inigo: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you
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Re: Misinformation and the Australian fires

rslade — Mon, 13 Jan 2020 19:51:26 GMT

> MikeGlassman (Contributor I) posted a new reply in Industry News on 01-11-2020

> Perhaps I am simply a person who is never alone even when locked in
> a room with rubber walls...

I prefer the theory that those with dementia make new friends, every day ...